The Next Sixty Years – Rolf Dobelli

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The Next Sixty Years —
A Business Perspective
Feb 2002

By Rolf Dobelli, [email”>[/email”>

· 2004: First global consumer boycott (consumers linked via Internet boycott brands on a global scale).

· 2004: Financial services have become commodities. Banks and insurance companies compete on lifestyle rather than interest rates.

· 2005: Most market research based on virtual (membership and identity in virtual communities) rather than physical properties (zip code, age, sex, etc.).

· 2005: The Internet enables most professionals to choose their residence on the basis of tax rates and lifestyle, rather than the strength of the local job market.

· 2006: The first individuals go public (IPO).

· 2006: Second economic crisis in Asia: Robotic production becomes cheaper than manual labor; Asia looses its advantage in the global economy.

· 2007: Advertising industry collapses: Most advertising in electronic media filtered out by intelligent agents; most private shopping done by bots based on product standards, price and ratings.

· 2007: AI fund managers produce consistently better returns than human money managers.

· 2007: Money-laundering made easy by virtual money-laundering banks hosted offshore using agents that automatically move money in and out of financial markets.

· 2008: Children becoming significant spenders (without parental involvement) as they are able to spend money through the Internet.

· 2009: In U.S., single national identification card is increasingly used for retail transactions (debit card), banking (credit card) and all government services (taxes, etc.)

· 2009: China launches cyberwar against Taiwan, trying to crash its economy.

· 2010: Companies plant first shopping viruses into private shopping bots.

· 2010: Fund management software combining AI investment selection and automated electronic trade execution is cheaply available; decline of brokerage and mutual fund industries.

· 2010: Forced transparency of publicly traded stock and massive increase in program trading equalizes equity returns across industries, companies and time; seeking higher returns, investors flock to venture capital and private offerings, creating a whole new industry of semi-publicly traded stock.

· 2010: 50% of all retail banking in developed countries via Internet.

· 2010: Formation of a global electronic stock exchange.

· 2010: Private money issued by Internet banks, credit card companies, auction sites and e-commerce companies leads to first global hyperinflation.

· 2010: Monetary system managed by private companies and suppliers of computer operating systems. Fed has diminished control over monetary policy.

· 2010: Exponential growth of electronic content leads to development of an information and knowledge-rating industry.

· 2010: Mandatory social competence classes in MBA schools.

· 2010: Info-fasting becomes global craze.

· 2010: Authenticity movement as backslash against VR. First retail chains publish their authenticity policy.

· 2010: Technology-driven unemployment of people over 40 years of age.

· 2010: Synthetic person becomes major role model for global youth.

· 2010: Purpose industry becomes major economic force.

· 2011: First global marketing and sponsoring contracts for synthetic person.

· 2012: Computer virus halts trading at major stock exchanges around the world. Trading flocks to e-Bay.

· 2015: Inequality of income and wealth in western countries reaches level of South America, leading to social unrest.

· 2015: Executive search companies increasingly consider personal network of candidates rather than knowledge and skills.

· 2015: Securitization of ideas and individuals (not only organizations / companies).

· 2018: The last labor union in a developed country is dissolved.

· 2020: Last national currency joins $, Yen, Euro or Renmimbi.

· 2020: Hiring decisions based on DNA.

· 2020: Anti-discrimination laws against synthetic workers.

· 2025: Anti-discrimination laws against human workers – management prefers synthetic workers as they are easier to manage.

· 2025: Paper money taken out of circulation in developed countries.

· 2025: Hiring decisions based on brain scan.

· 2030: US Supreme Court rules that brain scan of employee remains property of employee but can be used by employer even after employee has left the company.

· 2050: Wealthiest person in the world is synthetic.

· 2060: Re-creation of management titans from DNA (Sloan, Ford, Rockefeller, JP Morgan).

Rolf Dobelli, Ph.D.
Founder & Chairman
phone: +41.41.367.5151
phone: +1.954.359.4070

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