Why I would bet against the Conservatives forming the next government post 2015 general election?

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From the Guardian’s “UK population: how will it change over the next few decades?“. We can extrapolate the following chart below.

M+F UK population figures dirtily against housesold requirements 2016-2027 for age groups 40-50 & 51-60

M+F UK population figures dirtily against housesold requirements 2016-2027 for age groups 40-49 v 50-59

For each year I’ve added up the age ranges totals for 50-59 and subtracted 40-49 totals.

So here is my logic, those couples aged 50-59 will be looking to downsize after their children have left university, each year on the graph plots the difficulty of selling your house. This age band needs to do this due the lack of retirement funding they hold. Previous generations have been successfully following this pattern to acquire a small buy-to-let portfolio of perhaps just two properties.

After the next General Election in 2015, around 2017 there will be dramatic problems in the UK housing market. Downwards!

There were less people born after this batch of boomers, so there if there are less couples to buy the boomers property. QED something bad is going to happen to the UK property market. If only half that population that block are a couple. 200,000 then say potentially 50-100,000 couples downsizing is big volume, and I’m being optimistic it’s going to be this small.

Lets have a look at pensions.


As a country UK debt is considerably worse than the US.

Cameron and the Conservative Party will do their up most not to win the next General Election.

But if they win again in 2020, they could stay in power for a considerable period of sustained property lead prosperity.
Posted in In the mix - Politics.

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